Redefining “Work” - Part Three
Summary - We need to rearrange our society in order to have everyone reach their true potential and create a better world. A specific set of principles are to be implemented that provide the proper incentives to achieve this. These principles are implementing the Turntoo Model, changing the energy system from OPEX to decentralized CAPEX, changing the way we organize into AI-based cloud organizations, plus guaranteeing universal basic income and free, life-long education.
Life is good
But it can be better
Not having to worry about money and having all the time in the world to think about purpose in life can be defined as a ‘first-world problem’. My ideas on redefining “work” must sound slightly too pie-in-the-sky for most people, especially those who struggle daily to get food on the table for their family. I understand these struggles. I was raised by my single mother, living on wealth-care with three brothers and a sister who were all under the age of twelve. You can imagine that she did not have time to work with four kids and a baby. I still have no clue how she managed to get us fed, clothed and happy. But she did. Somehow she made it work, impossible though it seems now.
Due to the conditions in the Netherlands (at the time), I have had the privilege to go to proper schools and university afterwards. I got myself such a decent job that I now have both the luxury and the means to think about purpose in life. Because of my experience of growing up in a poor family and ‘climbing the social ladder’, I know that we can create a society in which everyone can - if they so desire - think about and fulfill their own true purpose in life. I believe everyone can achieve their full potential and be truly satisfied in life. All it takes is to rearrange our societies, slightly.
“Growth in society may not come from raising the average (…). It comes from increasing the number of people on the “tails”, that small, very small number of risk takers crazy enough to have ideas of their own, those endowed with that very rare ability called imagination, that rarer quality called courage, and who make things happen.”
Building a new society
What kind of society can support its people to slack around and think about purpose in life? Such a society is called a ‘post-scarcity society’. Post-scarcity is an economic situation in which most goods can be produced in great abundance with minimal human labor required, so that these goods become available to all very cheaply or even freely. Post-scarcity does not mean that scarcity has been eliminated for all goods and services, but that all people can easily have their basic survival needs met along with some significant proportion of their desires for goods and services. An example of a post-scarcity society is Star Trek. The need to accumulate wealth and material things in this world is meaningless, as everyone has everything they could ever wish for.
There are very good, selfish reasons why you would want to make the world a better place.
In such a society we can focus on adding true value to ourselves and others, living the full potential of the human existence. But what could a post-scarcity society look like? Are such dreams not better suited for sci-fi movies? Can this actually be achieved in our lifetime? Of course we can. All it takes is to rearrange our society into a framework focused around a specific set of incentives and principles:
Economy
Energy Supply
Organization
Income
Education
1. Economy - Turntoo model for proper incentives
A society based on endless economic growth is unsustainable. This is becoming more evident every passing day. Not only do we see the rampant environmental destruction brought onto us by ‘the system’, it is fundamentally ‘weird’ at its core. Compare it to nature: every organism, process or physical event strives towards balance, harmony or equilibrium. But not our all-consuming, ever-expanding economy. I never quite understood. Why do we want it to be larger every year? When is our economy big enough? Do we get a ‘game over’ sign at 1000 trillion? How does a ‘better’ economy help us when we destroy the Earth in the process? The limits to our growth have been made perfectly clear since 1972. We know that unlimited economic growth is counter-intuitive and more over, will eventually destroy us. So, what can we do about it?
The solution to this problem is elegant, easy to understand and revolves around a single underlying principle. The power of production and the responsibility of consumption need to be in the hands of the producer of a product, good or service. This means that the producer of a specific item involving a resource is also responsible for getting the resource back. The Earth will be the owner of all material, humans simply use (lease) material for a short period of time. This basic convention creates the proper incentives for the producer to reduce and re-use the amount of material in its product. It is an agreement that will automatically transition us from a linear economy towards a circular economy.
This principle is called the Turntoo Model by Thomas Rau, explained thoroughly in his book Material Matters. Let me give an example to make it easier to understand. I buy myself a bottle of (diet) coke. How come then, when the transaction is made and I buy the cola, all of a sudden the responsibility of recycling and proper waste disposal of the bottle is mine? How come I need to take care of this waste, while I have no say on how it is made? How come the Coca-Cola Company can wash its hands clean from producing thousands of tons of plastic waste annually and the only thing they need to do is print ‘please recycle’ on their cap?
It is my opinion that the current economic model is fundamentally wrong to its core, primarily with regards to resource management. We need to put the power of production and responsibility in the same hands while acknowledging that we do not ‘own’ a resource. We lease it from the Earth. This principle is one of the most powerful and easiest way to achieve a fully sustainable, circular economy.
2. Energy - Decentralized and CAPEX-based
In terms of energy, human beings only need three things: heat, transportation and lighting. That’s it. For thousands of years, we have relied on wood and muscle power to provide us with these needs. We transitioned to more sophisticated pieces of wood, i.e. coal or fossil fuels in general, about 200 years ago. Fossil fuels have traditionally been sold per barrel, tonnes or other type of unit. This is known as an ‘OPEX-based’ model, a process driven by operational expenditure. In less fancy terms: costs are made to ‘get a resource out of the ground’ and sold for a certain price. Such a model works out great as long as you have a relatively fixed trading price of the commodity. It is not so great if the trading price, for whatever reason, becomes negative. In that case, the OPEX-based model is a big disaster. Negative energy prices are quite a common phenomenon in the world of renewables.
Turns out that even for the oil and gas industry, negative prices can be a thing.
The world was shocked when on April 20, 2020, in an astonishing, history-first, the WTI oil price actually went below zero and worth less than nothing. Once again, history shows us that the beliefs we hold as truths can be shattered instantly and thoroughly.
The phenomena of negative prices is extremely harmful to an OPEX-based model. The producers of energy not only have to pay consumers in such an event, but also have to pay the costs of extracting energy. What does this all mean exactly? It means that selling energy per barrel is a thing of the past. In order for our energy system to survive, we need to transition towards a system that provides producers, consumers, and investors with clear long-term security and sustainable income. That requires the creation of a sustainable energy system that can withstand system shocks due to an oversupply of cheap energy. To sum things up, we need to transition from an OPEX-based model to a CAPEX-based model.
I actually described such a model in a previous article, the Energy Transition Principles. In this article I called such a model the Energy Mortgage.It is a proposed system in which energy is not sold per barrel, tonnes, kilo-Watt-hours or any unit for that matter. It is a system in which a producer and consumer of energy agree to a long-term contract, at least ten years. A fixed monthly fee is agreed for the entire period, and the consumer is provided with an agreed upon amount of energy for the entire length of the contract. This is exactly the same system as - guess what - regular mortgages for houses that we live in. It is a time-proven financial instrument, perfectly suited to the energy market. It can also be compared to a limitless mobile plan, one in which you do not pay per MB but for ‘limitless’ data.
The energy mortgage system has many benefits for both producers, consumers and investors. All parties involved have long-term security and know exactly what to expect. The producer even has the added benefit of making more profit, if it manages to increase energy efficiency. The investor, which can be the producer too, has a secure and long-term cash flow. Take one of the largest banks in the Netherlands for example, the ABN Amro bank. One might think that most amount of money is made with business transactions. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Roughly 70% of all the profits of the bank (almost 3 billion euro) are made from regular plain-old simple mortgages. With virtually no risk and no overhead, a mortgage is the perfect tool for long-term security and profit. Billions of profit annually, thirty years of predictable cash-flow, all due to a single, time-proven financial instrument. I call that easy money.
3. Organization - Benevolent AI cloud
In order for 12 billion humans to thrive in the 21st century, we need to organize our societies in such a way that information is more efficiently managed. Even more important, we need to manage the way disinformation is recognized and processed. The political and organizational frameworks that most societies have at this moment are insufficient to handle the (dis)information posed at the moment. These frameworks date back hundreds of years ago. Most capitalist democracies have their roots in the age of enlightenment and the French Revolution. It has brought us many good things, certainly. But can we honestly say that the current political systems, designed in a time and age where toilets still had to be invented, is the best system available? As I have made clear in a previous article, I believe the answer is a definitive NO.
The System is fundamentally flawed. And we are all in it.
Our current organizational framework is not up to the challenges of the 21st century, the most important being populism and demagoguery on a global scale, backed by disruptive new technologies such as social media. What we can learn from history is that these trends and technologies are nothing new. We have seen it time and again. Societies grow until some form of crisis, internal or external, triggers a system collapse. One of the most common example is the fall of the Western Roman Empire. The Western Societies currently face a potential existential crisis triggered by Covid-19. But it cannot be said that a pandemic is the only reason for collapse, far from it. We have been teetering on the edge of economic disaster for quite some time. Covid-19 simply shows the deep vulnerabilities of the current system.
When society is faced with an existential threat, there are two outcomes. The society adapts into a new form, a new organization, and survives. If not able or willing, it succumbs and dies. It is exactly as Darwin said: it is not the strongest but those most adaptable to change that survive. We too, need to adapt.
In order to future-proof themselves, governments need to transform into decentralized hive-minds (a governmental cloud) that takes the best interests of the entire group into consideration. It is described in full in one of my previous articles, here is a summary. The first step is to provide everyone with a personal Avatar in a Virtual World. This Avatar can be considered the best version of you. A version of you who thinks about your best interest in the long-term, without you even having to think of it. Every Avatar is then connected into a single “Benevolent Dictator Cloud”, where they all communicate instantly with one another. In a way, you could view this Benevolent Cloud as a hive-mind where every person, every individual, is represented by an Avatar in the Virtual. Just as in regular politics, you have a representative of yourself in a large body of other representatives that decide for you. The cloud optimizes for the least amount of suffering for the entire group. The end result? An organizational framework that takes the best interests of every single soul to heart. This Benevolent Cloud is not susceptible to corruption, populism, dogmatism, or short-term perverse incentives. The Cloud is there for you.
4. Universal Basic Income - Individual economic safety and freedom
Just a few weeks ago, I discussed how a Universal Basic Income could help us achieve more personal freedom and safety. It is an ironic twist of fate that now, in these times of Covid-19 induced crisis, a Universal Basic Income is proposed by many as a measure to mitigate the economic crisis looming above our heads. Both Spain and the Pope have recently endorsed the Basic Income as a measure to support those who need it most in our society. For the one’s who are unfamiliar with it: a Universal Basic Income (UBI) is a periodic payment delivered to each individual, no questions asked. It would be unconditional, automatic and would be a right for everyone in society. Think of it as a pension, but you do not have to be above a certain age to earn it. You simply earn it by existing, just as you earn your other human rights by simply existing.
There are many reasons for implementing a Basic Income. Some have argued that Basic Income increases economic growth because it would sustain people while they invest in education to get interesting and well-paid jobs. Many technologists believe that automation, creating technological unemployment, will make Basic Income a necessity. With rising unemployment rates, poor communities would become more impoverished worldwide. Proponents therefore argue that it could solve many world problems like high work stress and could create more opportunities and efficient and effective work.
The most valid argument for universal basic income to me however, is that it would create real freedom. The freedom to do whatever one “might want to do”. It will provide so many of us, struggling to make ends meet, with a freedom to pursue the things in life that provide meaning to us. This can range from arts, poetry, helping those in need, or simply sitting behind a desk from 9 till 5. You will have full control over your life.
Many people doubt whether a Basic Income is viable, or even affordable. Virtually every reasons against Basic Income can be countered. The reason I personally believe most of us do not want to institute a Basic Income is ideological. Deep down, most of us believe you have to work to earn money. I however consider Basic Income as a right similar to any other Human Right. I see it as an inheritance from our ancestors. Our forefathers and foremothers who have worked and toiled hard for hundreds to thousands of years to make the world better for their children: us. It is now time for us to reap the benefits they have sown. Universal Basic Income is a society-wide retirement scheme that our ancestors have worked hard for. Every one of us earns it.
5. Education - Free, unlimited, life-long re-purposing
There is one thing we can be sure of: more disruptions will come in the future. They can be benign and gradual, caused by cultural changes that drive innovation such as ‘Dieselgate’. This event has paved the way for a more anti-fossil fuel stance, leading Volkswagen on a path of electrification. Disruptions can be more catastrophic in nature however, such as the example of self-driving cars. This technology could destroy millions of honest jobs around the world, potentially creating a whole new class of people: the ‘unemployables’.
Whether we like it or not, change has become a constant in our life. Unfortunately, we are ill-equipped to handle this reality because we never learned this in school. Or anywhere for that matter.
Our educational system is woefully inadequate, unable to deal with a world of constant change. We are not provided the skills to be a valuable member of society for our entire life. As an 8-year old, I still remember my primary school teacher telling me that learning multiplication tables was important because we “would not be walking around with a pocket calculator when we are older”. Most of us now walk around with the accumulated knowledge of the world in our pocket in the form of the internet.
The reality is that we cannot prepare our children for their future, because we do not know what it will look like. We can however teach them the skills to learn new skills quickly. Teach them to learn, not teach them specific knowledge. We should invest in the adaptive power of people for them to have the ability to always change their skills when they need to. In practice this would mean that, whenever someone believes his or her job becomes obsolete due to whichever reason, he or she has the ability to re-educate and learn new skills. For example, in the case that truck drivers get slowly displaced by self-driving trucks in the future. With free education, they can re-purpose themselves to become something else. Anything else. Combined with a Universal Basic Income, this would provide humans total personal freedom to be whatever they want to be. A truck driver can become a bar owner or a logistical manager at the truck company for that matter. All we need to do, is grant people access to free education.
Closing Remarks
I acknowledge the fact that the post-scarcity society I am describing is somewhat of a Utopia. The reality that I visualize in my head is theoretical, and in a way, improbable. There will - most likely - always be hunger, sadness, grief, man-made disaster and suffering. Nonetheless I feel the need to strive for a Utopia, because I believe that aspiring towards that goal creates beautiful things in the process. I draw my inspiration from a very nerdy place: Star Trek.
In Star Trek, the people of Earth live in a perfect world. They have everything they desire and more, literally. This is because of an invention called the replicator. This machine can create anything you want out of thin air. It can be your mom’s spaghetti or a jetski, anything you can think of. In a world where replicators exist, money is meaningless. Everyone is provided for with everything they could ever want. In this world, the acquisition of wealth is no longer the driving force in peoples’ lives. They work to better themselves and the rest of humanity. I aim to create this world because I believe it is the right thing to do.
Some say changing a society takes time. I disagree. History shows us that most societies are forced to change or die in an instant, ignited by a crisis that lays bear the foundations of the rotting substructure of that society. In almost all of the cases where a society survives and evolves, it will change for the better. Despite our current beliefs, our conviction that we are at the pinnacle of human development, we need to accept that our current world order will not last forever. By hook or by crook, our world order will come to an end.
It is up to us to decide whether we make it a better world or not.
