Benevolent AI (Dictator) Cloud
Why can we not discuss alternatives to democracy? Why do we believe democracy is such a big deal? This blog proposes the creation of a new, arguably far more democratic system that uses digital avatars that represent all citizens in a governmental cloud.
“Freedom has many difficulties. And democracy is not perfect.”
John F. Kennedy, Berlin, 1963
What would John F. Kennedy say if he could see the current state of the United States of America? At the time of writing - March 2020 - the Covid-19 pandemic is quickly changing our lives. Things are happening fast. The signals I get from different feeds about the situation in the U.S. are troublesome, to say the least.
The situation is especially troubling when you look at the current leadership, which seems both uncoordinated and divided. Adding fuel to the fire is the polarization of the population with regards to pretty much anything. If the situation continues to degrade, I believe it could very well be that the disruption brought by the pandemic will shake the very foundations of what we believe in.
Some argue that the American democratic system has shaken many times before, be it by internal or external crises, but so far it has never failed. In the last century alone, it endured both World Wars and the Cold War, with the Great Depression crammed in between, and it is still functional. In fact it came out more robust than ever before. The only time you could arguably say it “failed” was when the U.S. was in its infancy, during the American Civil War. The fact that democracy has persevered despite these threats is considered a hallmark and pivotal achievement of Mankind.
I am not so sure.
Many of you will agree on Churchill’s famous words: “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the rest.” The words, coupled with today’s monumental challenges, triggered me to think different. Why do we not create a new form of government? Can we honestly say that the current political system, which was designed in a time and age where toilets still had to be invented, is the best system available?
Can we create a new system that is fairer, more robust to crisis and populism, and arguably even more democratic?
The state of democratic affairs
With all the current upheaval in the world, one might ask: is the system fundamentally ‘broken’? I took the below picture when I was walking in Rotterdam, a truly dystopian image signifying the disparities.
Gentrification in action. To the left are social housing buildings which are soon to broken down. To the right are privately owned sector housing that will come in its place. The haves, versus the have nots.
Both the US and the EU are having their fair share of problems. Racial riots, partisanship and populism, Brexit, discourse throughout the EU, a monetary crisis with a division between North and South Europe in the making. Populism and authoritarianism are on the rise worldwide, which could have devastating effects in the longer term. This instability is by no means a problem we have not encountered before. The 1930s is perhaps the most well-known example of a time where democracy and freedom where besieged worldwide, accompanied by the rise of fascism and communism in a time of great economic despair. It can be said that any system of government, run by people, is susceptible to corruption and populism. In any society, it is up to just a few brave souls who protect the rest from dangers they do not recognize. This protectionism is described beautifully by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt in their book How Democracies Die:
“Democracy is a tightrope pensioned by the will of the people - who might choose a demagogue - and gatekeepers: those who stand against it. This was recognized as one of the biggest set issues by the founding fathers in America.”
The dangers of ‘mis-politics’ go back all the way in recorded history, with one of the most well-known cases of ancient populism to be found during Roman times. The first populists where known as the Populares. That is correct, that is actually where the word comes from. And who was the biggest populist of them all? The one who was responsible for the downfall of the Roman Republic that stood for almost 500 years? Julius Caesar.
I believe it can be stated that any system of government which is run by people is susceptible to corruption, populism and degradation - no matter how brave and just the leadership is.
Sometimes however the system is working properly, but external factors come in play.
The great disruptor - technology
The disruptive nature of technology creates new ways for people to organize which sometimes upset the “old” order. The most hailed example of modern times is internet, in particular social media. With the advent of internet, these media provide direct power to the people, something that could arguably be called direct democracy at its finest. Internet and the blockchain will kill our societies. This too, despite all evidence to the contrary or people arguing, is history on repeat. There have been times before where new technology, a new form of communication, has greatly disrupted the world order.
During the 15th century, a time shortly after the greatest plagues known to the Western World ravaged through Europe, the printing press was being perfect. Its impact on the world order cannot be understated. The printing press allowed free-thinkers, such as Martin Luther, to spread their (heretic!) ideas in the form of leaflets (fake news!) to everyone on the continent. You could argue these were the influencers of their day. It was now possible to influence people you never met before, and your ideas will remain alive even after you have died. Martin Luther translated the Bible into common German, thereby directly undermining the power of the Catholic Church and setting in motion one of the most dramatic shifts in human society in our history.
The lesson to be learned here is that during times of change, just as in nature, an organization either adepts or dies.
A plague and disruptive technologies that caused the reformation of the catholic church, the downfall of the feudal system and the dawn of the Renaissance. Hmm, any similarities there? If you like to know more about these interesting times, I can recommend you Prophets of Doom by Dan Carlin, or the article Internet and Blockchain Will Kill Nation-States by Tomas Pueyo.
The rise and fall of organizations
Every once in a while, a company fails and goes bankrupt. Only when it is a very large, or long-lasting organization that seemed “too big to fail” do we perceive this as something upsetting. This applies not just to companies or big organizations, but also civilizations and even Empires, which are basically nothing more than very large organizations of humans. Case in point: the fall of the Soviet Union.
At the start of 1989, you would be declared mentally insane if you would predict the fall of the Berlin Wall by the end of the year. No one predicted this, not even the so-called “experts” in the Pentagon. Nevertheless, the end of the Soviet Union was a fact after the opening of the first McDonald’s in Moscow in 1990. Looking back now, with the benefit of hindsight, this event seemed like it was bound to happen while at the time it was impossible to conceive for most people.
There are many underlying reasons for organizations or societies to fail: resource scarcity, war, natural or man-made disaster, nations going bankrupt because of an arms race. Sometimes however, there are more abstract causes of failure. Sometimes organizations simply grow too large and bust due to information overload. Let me explain.
Organizations, just like organisms, grow. For companies as well as for societies, this means a growth in people and revenue. As the organization grows, chaos and disorder accompany the growth. At some point, the amount of people and information the organization needs to process becomes too much. Any crises, internal or external, can then trigger a system collapse. At this point, the organization either dies or reinvents itself through much pain.
The same is occurring in the West at the moment.
The system of government that was put in place has its origins in the French Revolution, when concepts such as the believe Politica, Liberalism and Capitalism were invented. This organizational framework of our governments have remained basically the seem for almost 200 years, while we have seen as much technological progress in those 200 years as in the 200.000 years before that. There were no trains, no cars, no healthcare and no toilets when we invented Democracy. Ergo, I believe it is safe to say that the system of government we use to organize ourselves, has become obsolete.
To summarize, every great Empire, including its organizational framework, fails. It is a cycle of growth and demise, and through crises rebirth. The pains that accompany the transition into a new era can be seen as birthing contractions. The society either adapts and is reborn, or it fails and dies. I believe we are at the dawn of such a contraction. Any man-made or natural occurring crisis (such as the Covid-19 pandemic) acts merely as an accelerator to these contractions.
As I do not like to fail but survive (and thrive), I am proposing a new system of government that is equipped to deal with the towering challenges that we are facing today.
The benevolent AI dictator
A true dictatorship is like playing Russian Roulette where almost every spot on the wheel is loaded with a potential disaster. It is a roll of the dice where you might hit the jackpot and get yourself a Philosopher King of ancient times, such as Marcus Aurelius (the good emperor from Gladiator, remember?). The next time however will inevitable be a Commodus or worse, a Kim-Jung Un. Contrary to what you might think when you read the header, I am NOT proposing to simply create a single AI overlord who rules over us. What I propose, is to build 7 billion of them.
What I propose is to combine decentralized decision making with the most state-of-the-art technology to create a “governmental cloud” that provides us with political guidance. Let me explain by means of some simple drawings.
People live in the Real World. Most people in the Real are doing their things. It’s not great, not terrible.
Then, the people decide to instate a benevolent AI Dictator Cloud. This goes as follows. The first step is to provide everyone with a personal avatar in the Virtual World.
This digital avatar can be considered the best version of you. A version of you who thinks about your best interest in the long-term, without you even having to think of it. Every Virtual Avatar is then connected into a single “Benevolent Dictator Cloud”, where they all communicate instantly with one another. In a way, you could view this Benevolent Dictator Cloud as a hive-mind where every person, every individual in the Real, is represented by a digital avatar in the Virtual. This cloud then optimizes for either most amount of happiness, or least amount of suffering, the latter which can be more easily done.
The end result? An organizational framework that takes the best interests of every single soul in the Real World to heart. This Benevolent Cloud is not susceptible to corruption, populism, dogmatism, or short term perverse incentives. The Benevolent Cloud is there for one thing only: to help you.
Why should a Benevolent Dictator Cloud be better than humans?
We are not the good in making the right decisions. Especially not when it comes to tough choices that impact us in the long-term. Most of us are really bad in making hard decisions now, so that we (or the ones who come after us) may benefit later. We are hardwired towards instant gratification. The most perfect example of this, is the Marshmallow Test. This test provides children with the following choice.
The child is given a marshmallow with the remark that if he or she decides not to eat the marshmallow, he or she will receive two (!) marshmallows. It is shown that kids, who are able to delay gratification and choose not to eat the marshmallow, they perform markedly better in life. In fact, this is the one psychological test that correlates a success in the test (not eating the marshmallow) with success later in life.
The Benevolent Cloud makes you not eat the marshmallows when you want to. The Benevolent Cloud is designed to make these tough decisions for you while taking everyone’s interest at heart because it communicates as a hive-mind with those who are connected. It can be programmed in such a way that it is inherently good.
Furthermore, the very architecture of the Cloud is a decentralization of power by its very nature. It is not susceptible to populists or demagogues. This means it is fairer for all and more robust to system shocks. This decentralized nature of the Cloud makes it arguably the most democratic system there is. It is the best of what the human soul can offer, augmented with the best ways to deploy our technology.
A brief history of benevolent dictators
Before claiming the benefits of benevolent dictators, let us have a look at our past to see what we can learn. There have not been many benevolent dictators in our recorded history. Perhaps the reason for this, is most aptly summarized in the quote:
“Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are thus almost always bad men.”
There are exceptions to this rule however. Over the course of history, there have been man that have wielded absolute powers and controlled vast Empires, who did not abuse their power. In fact, there have been quite a few outstanding characters who have used their power for the greater good. Though what is defined ‘good’ in ancient times is not always up to our modern day standards. Below are just a few examples of remarkable individuals who are both praised and feared since we started Empire building.
Sure, we can learn much from the men. However, we should also never forget that next to this list of benevolent dictators there is a much, much longer list of bad dictators. It is therefore not simply a list of good examples that we should try to emulate. Far from it.
For me, what we can learn most from these extraordinary persons from history is that Democracy is indeed not perfect.
There are other ways, and we should not shy away from exploring these because we find it too hard to conceptualize something new.
Closing remarks
“Freedom has many difficulties. And democracy is not perfect. But we had never put a wall up to keep our people in.”
That was the full quote by John F. Kennedy in Berlin, spoken at the time the Berlin Wall was under construction. A time where we had not one, but two systems of government in the World, Democracy and Communism. Democracy has ‘won’, which I am very glad of. What I do think is a shame however, is that we uphold Democracy on some sort of holy pedestal. Most people cannot even comprehend let alone discuss the idea of an alternative to Democracy. That, I believe, is not a very democratic thought.
I do not predict anymore. I learned from Nassim Nicholas Taleb after reading Black Swan that this is foolish. As we know for sure that our models of the future will never be correct unless you are very lucky I do not usually think in terms of what is probable. Sometimes however, it is wise to think in terms of what is possible.
I truly believe we are at a cross-roads in our history. I consider it likely that this pandemic, similar to all other pandemics in history, will change our world order and beliefs in the current system. Be it because of the economic fallout or civil unrest that follows the wake of any pandemic, there will be a time “before, and after” Covid-19.
It is up to us to decide if we want to fail or adept. The question is: do we want to hold on to the same system that got us here in the first place?
Personal note
You might think I am a Utopian. Well, you are right. Guilty as charged. My personal belief in a Utopian World Order is something that I learned in my childhood from Star Trek. Though Star Trek is still a world in which hardship, inequality and distrust exist, the order of things that Man has created is universally beautiful. One story still stands by me to this day. It was a story that first officer Chakotay told Captain Janeway before they were betrayed by the Borg. He was a native Indian, and said the following:
One day, a Frog meets a scorpion sitting at the side of a river. He asks the Scorpion: “What are you doing here?” The Scorpion answers: “I am trying to get across, but everyone is afraid of my stinger. Will you help me get across? You are strong and big enough to carry me on your back.” The Frogs thinks about it for a minute, but declines and says: “I cannot take the risk of you poisoning me with your stinger, it is too dangerous.” The Scorpion, clearly upset, answers the Frog: “Why would I do that? If you take me with you, and I sting you, we will both drown!” The Frog, seeing the logic in this statement, agrees with the Scorpion. He takes the Scorpion on his back and they both swim out onto the river. Then, in the middle of the river, the Scorpion stings the Frog. The Frog, terrified and slowly crippling by the Scorpio’s poison, ask the Scorpion: “Why did you do that? Now we both drown!” The Scorpion answers:
“Because it is in my nature.”
The story has stuck with me ever since. It helps me to distinguish between the inherently good and bad, not just with people but also with systems. I believe the story applies to the Benevolent Dictator Cloud as well. We have the opportunity to create an inherently good political system, instead of a neutral system. Every Avatar in the Virtual can be programmed to be inherently good, looking out for you and for others. This creates a system that is rigged towards values that we all approve of, incorruptible for short-term emotions or populism. Values like freedom, honesty, equality, decentralization of power and delayed gratification.
References & Further Reading
Unchartered Territories - Internet and Blockchain Will Kill Nation-States